Rarely has the political landscape changed so dramatically virtually overnight. The twin events of the takeover of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat by Republican Scott Brown and the Citizens United ruling by the Supreme Court have not just entranced Washington, but also Madison Avenue. Analysts of all persuasions, including TVB, are anticipating a cascade of political dollars during 2010. How should broadcasters be telling advertisers of all kinds to prepare for it?

First, let's look at the changed political landscape. The Brown win has energized the Republican Party. It will be a great boost for fundraising and for fielding more competitive candidates. It is clear there will now be a record number of tight races in the House this fall — as many as 70 — as well as hot gubernatorial and Senate races.

But the news that has the media community most excited is the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling overturning key elements of the McCain-Feingold Act. The ruling allows corporations, unions, trade associations, interest groups and individuals to advertise directly for or against the election of specific candidates. And there is no blackout period. Groups had previously been barred from advertising 60 days prior to Election Day.

So what's our take-away?

Clearly both the Brown victory and the new unrestricted class of candidate advertiser are going to put upward pressure on 2010 campaign spending. How much? Nobody knows. But estimates of plus $300 million to $500 million, reported in the press, seem to be appropriate.

The fact is a lot of the issue-money spenders were already active. The ruling provides another channel and a longer window for them to operate within. TVB is forecasting about $1.8 billion in local market TV spending; any significant increase will tighten access to fall inventory. Therefore, the most important implication for campaigns and other advertisers is to buy earlier. This is particularly true in states that allow early balloting.

While other local media options are licking their chops over the prospect of a sold-out local TV marketplace, only television stations can deliver the voters that the campaigns covet.

For example, while cable's pitch is that it can target voters via the choice of cable channel, broadcast stations can target via program type and time period. But only broadcasters can deliver commercials to all the market's voters.

Due to high satellite penetration, local commercial insertion in cable programming is unseen by large swaths of the viewing public. The typical cable advertisement reaches an average of 61% of voters in a given market, sometimes far less. And that's potential, not actual viewing (which is lesser still). In any event, we expect that the rising tide will lift all boats in competitive markets and that all local media will be tight in late September and October.

Some considerations for political planners and general market advertisers:

To political advertisers:

• Keep dollars on local broadcast stations. Those ads are the most cost-effective. While Barack Obama is credited with a masterful digital strategy in his 2008 presidential campaign, most of his advertising budget was spent on local broadcast TV.
  
• Consider moving more of the media spend into earlier stages of the campaign, say, late summer. It will allow the candidates to define themselves on their own terms before any other advertising does. This tactic will also take advantage of more abundant TV station inventory. Obviously, the last three weeks of the campaign (when some candidates spend up to 65% of their budgets) are still vital, but an early jump could make more strategic sense now than ever before.
  
• Remember that local stations reach every voter in every voting district.
  
• Stay informed. TVB has created Political Databank 2010 to assist consultants, planners and buyers with their local media choices. Among other things, it contains key election dates, market profiles, spending histories and viewing preferences by political persuasion. It can found at www.tvb.org.

To non-political advertisers:

• Stay close to your reps, stations and TVB for market intelligence. As always, there will be huge differences in inventory pressure on a DMA-by-DMA basis. Avails in markets with tight Senate, gubernatorial and House races will be particularly tough to find in October. But many markets will be only slightly or totally not impacted. If 2008 is any indicator, the inventory squeeze was manageable. Even for the few severely impacted markets, inventory was a problem for only a very short window, just prior to Election Day.

If there's an avalanche that's coming, there are only two words that apply: plan ahead.

Steve Lanzano is the president of the Television Bureau of Advertising. He can be reached at steve@tvb.org.