Big 3 Networks Set To Slug It Out At 10 P.M.

Network affiliates should not expect much change in the pecking order of 10 p.m. program viewership among the Big Three networks for the upcoming 2011-12 season, and they shouldn't expect any breakout hits that could result in lots of new viewers flowing into their 11 p.m. local newscasts, media buyers tell TVNewsCheck.

In analyzing the three networks' nightly 10 p.m. schedules that will premiere next month, TV buyers believe that CBS will continue to dominate the hour with the most viewers most nights, followed by ABC then NBC. And Fox, whose 9 p.m. shows lead into its affiliates' 10 o’clock late local newscasts, will get a boost from its new variety show X-Factor, predicted by media buyers to be the highest-rated new show this coming season.

Fox will make its affiliates happy by delaying the start of two shows to run X-Factor from 8 to 10 p.m. until Nov. 23 on Wednesdays and until Nov. 3 on Thursdays, leading directly into local news. 

While no one knows for sure how many viewers each show will bring in, and what the new competitive dynamic each night in the hour will be because of the new shows that will premiere, media agency research and programming executives make their living analyzing stuff like that. And their media buyers use not only each show's predicted audience share versus the competition, but also their gut feelings after viewing each show's pilot, to make their buying judgments in the upfront.

The 10 p.m. hour is not nearly as important to the broadcast networks from a ratings and profit aspect as it was for decades before 2000. Prior to 2000, most of the broadcast networks' highest-quality and highest-rated shows — and the shows that brought in the largest amount of ad dollars — were in the 10 p.m. hour. And that was a good thing for affiliates since a sizable portion of the 11 p.m. local news audiences usually comes from the networks that viewers are watching from 10 to 11. 

Nothing proved that more than in 2009 when NBC decided to scrap its 10 p.m. scripted programming Monday-Friday and replace it with a nightly Jay Leno talk show. Viewership for NBC affiliates' 11 p.m. news declined 15%-45% during the five months Leno was on the air. One NBC affiliate dropped from the most-viewed newscast in its market, to No. 2 in just five weeks.

The outcry by the affiliates was so loud that NBC canceled Leno and returned to scripted shows. But the network is still trying to recover.

And while CBS and ABC are doing better at 10 p.m., the hour is still not what it was a decade ago, before cable dramas began making inroads into the broadcast nets’ audience.

"For 21 consecutive years beginning in 1979, the Emmy Award for best drama went to a 10 p.m. show on one of the Big Three broadcast networks," said Brad Adgate, executive VP of research at Horizon Media. "But in the past 10 years, not one 10 p.m. show on broadcast was an Emmy winner. The Golden Age of the 10 p.m. drama on the broadcast networks came to an end."

"NBC did improve its 10 p.m. hour a little, but overall its program lineup and flow is still weak and is not going to help its affiliates’ 11 p.m. news that much more," said Billie Gold, VP and director of programming at media agency Carat. "NBC did spend more money on its programming but it is not going to change in the viewer pecking order this season."

Gold added, "CBS was No. 1 at 10 p.m. last season and they will still be No.1, although they may have gotten even a little stronger. ABC has some possible upside at 10 with Body of Proof there for an entire season this year and Castle having established itself in the time period. But overall there is no game changer for anyone."

Francois Lee, VP and activation director at MediaVest, agreed with Gold about a lack of game changers and said the hour will pretty much play out for the broadcast networks like each night will, with CBS, ABC and NBC finishing in that order, except on Sunday when NBC has Sunday Night Football. 

SNF averaged about 20 million viewers last season, although it is on only in the fourth quarter of the year and then NBC has to build 10 o’clock again from scratch.

But Lee believes a good portion of those football viewers on Sunday nights are going to stay with NBC and watch the local news, since once the game ends, it will be past 11 and the NBC affiliates will be the only place to go. "The NBC affiliates should be able to capitalize on Sunday nights from that huge football lead-in," he said.