Gainers Rare Among TV Groups In '08

Only six of the Top 50 TV station groups posted revenue growth, according to the latest BIAfn/TVNewsCheck 2008 ranking by revenue: Post-Newsweek, McGraw-Hill, Dispatch, Capitol, Griffin and CCA. Overall, BIAfn says, revenue fell 6.5% to $20.1 billion in 2008 and will plunge another 17.3% to $16.6 billion this year. And don't look for significant growth until 2012, it says.
TVNewsCheck,

In what should come as no surprise to anyone following the TV broadcasting business, only six of the Top 50 TV station groups managed to grow revenues in 2008, according to the BIAfn/TVNewsCheck annual revenue ranking.

The fortunate half dozen: Post-Newsweek (up 3.59 percent) McGraw-Hill (up 6.26 percent), Dispatch (up 7.48 percent), Capitol (up 8.75 percent), Griffin (up 4.2 percent) and CCA (up less than 1 percent).

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Led by Sunbelt (down 20.42 percent) and Sunbeam (down 15.29 percent), the rest of the 2008 returnees on the Top 50 ranking posted negative revenue numbers for the year, although most were in the single digits.

The declines reflect the recession that gripped the country in 2008 and has yet to let go.

Overall, broadcast  TV revenue fell 6.5 percent to $20.1 billion in 2008, according to BIAfn, even though candidates and political advocacy groups pumped money into stations at record levels during the year's incessant campaigning.

The Top 50 accounted for about 91 percent of total industry revenue for the year.

With political ad spending sharply curtailed this year, BIAfn today is forecasting that total industry revenue will fall 17.3 percent in 2009 to $16.6 billion -- the lowest since 1995.

The 2008 Top 50 ranking itself is little changed from 2007 as the declining revenues, plummeting stock prices and lack of credit brought the station trading marketplace to a virtual standstill.

Most changes in rank were due to differences in actual sales rather than to additions or subtraction to groups' station portfolios.

Fox is still No. 1. CBS slipped by NBC to claim the No. 2 spot; Scripps moved up one notch, passing Meredith to become the new No. 17; and Nexstar pushed past Sunbeam and is now No. 21.

Dispatch was the big gainer, moving up five spots from No. 35 to No. 30 while passing New Vision, Granite, Cordillera and Freedom.

Schurz is the new No. 38, replacing Pappas Telecasting, which was broken up by bankruptcy.

Entering the ranking for the first time were New World (No. 48), which had picked up the some of the pieces of Pappas; Bahakel (No. 49); and News Press & Gazette (No. 50).

BIAfn does not see industry revenue bouncing back quickly. With a boost from political advertising, it forecasts, revenue will grow slightly to $16.7 billion in 2010, but drop back to the 2009 level of $16.9 billion in 2011.

Not until 2012 will stations experience significant revenue growth -- to $17.6 billion, it predicts. And even then it will be far short of the industry's record high of $22.8 billion in 2006.

"The economy is going to take a long time to get out of the doldrums," says BIAfn analyst Mark Fratrik. "There won't be a rush back to where we were before. The recovery will last into 2010 and advertisers will take their time coming back."

According to Fratrik, advertisers have historically lagged behind the economy. "They wait to make sure that enough people are employed and spending money."

The automobile industry has long been TV's biggest advertiser, he says. "There will be a pent up demand for automobile, but, given the fewer number of brands and dealerships, automobile advertising won't be anywhere near the levels we had prior to this economic downturn."

And TV stations have to battle more than just the general economy, he says. "They are facing the long secular trend of increased competition from cable and the Internet."

For the Top 50, TVNewsCheck combines the revenue of station groups that are managed together or have substantial common ownership.

For instance, Nexstar's revenue includes that of Mission Broadcasting, a group that owns stations in many of the same markets as Nexstar that Nexstar operates in duopolies.

Likewise, Local TV LLC absorbed the revenue of the FoxCo Acquisition stations; Newport is credited with High Plains revenue; and Sinclair's total is swelled by the revenue of Cunningham.

The Top 50 revenue comprises advertising revenue only. Many of the figures come from responses to a BIAfn survey of station groups. Absent a response, BIAfn estimates the revenue based on its on-going tracking of market-by-market TV revenue as well as individual stations.

2008 TOP 50 STATION GROUPS

2008 Rank
2007 Rank
 Owner
2008 Revenue (000)
2007 Revenue (000)
% change
1
1
 Fox 1,846,200 2,066,275 -10.65
2
3
 CBS 1,607,950 1,699,150 -5.37
3
2
 NBC 1,543,800 1,765,825 -12.57
4
4
 ABC 1,103,600 1,193,000 -7.49
5
5
 Tribune 950,200 1,033,450 -8.06
6
6
 Gannett 863,700 934,025 -7.53
7
7
 Hearst 772,675 816,525 -5.37
8
8
 Belo 731,675 799,875 -8.53
9
9
 Univision 697,525 750,525 -7.06
10
10
 Raycom 669,125 680,725 -1.70
11
11
 Sinclair 655,477 682,075 -3.90
12
12
 Cox 585,025 628,400 -6.90
13
13
 Local TV LLC 444,425 480,900 -7.58
14
14
 Post-Newsweek 420,300 405,750 3.59
15
15
 LIN 400,825 400,875 -0.01
16
16
 Media General 352,350 364,850 -3.43
17
18
 Scripps 345,000 356,125 -3.12
18
17
 Meredith 326,075 357,175 -8.71
19
19
 Gray 324,075 337,975 -4.11
20
20
 Newport 292,000 303,450 -3.77
21
22
 Nexstar 247,050 248,300 -0.50
22
21
 Sunbeam 216,600 255,700 -15.29
23
23
 Allbritton 201,250 219,425 -8.28
24
24
 Young 191,500 209,575 -8.62
25
25
 Entravision 165,500 176,500 -6.23
26
26
 Journal 152,825 166,050 -7.96
27
27
 Fisher 131,975 145,750 -9.45
28
30
 McGraw-Hill 129,925 122,275 6.26
29
28
 Hubbard 121,225 127,600 -5.00
30
35
 Dispatch 118,500 110,250 7.48
31
29
 Barrington 115,375 122,540 -5.85
32
31
 Freedom 113,175 116,425 -2.79
33
36
 Capitol 111,875 102,875 8.75
34
34
 New Vision 107,725 111,025 -2.97
35
33
 Granite 106,850 114,075 -6.33
36
32
 Cordillera 105,800 114,725 -7.78
37
37
 Landmark 85,225 96,050 -11.27
38
39
 Schurz 83,225 85,975 -3.20
39
40
 Quincy 78,200 79,775 -1.97
40
45
 Griffin 71,300 68,425 4.20
41
42
 Weigel 71,000 76,075 -6.67
42
43
 Ion 68,250 74,400 -8.27
43
44
 Four Points 64,875 69,400 -6.52
44
41
 Sunbelt 63,050 79,225 -20.42
45
46
 InterMedia 60,500 66,650 -9.23
46
47
 Hoak 58,275 63,325 -7.97
47
50
 CCA 57,825 57,675 0.26
48
N/A
 New World 52,850
N/A
N/A
49
N/A
 Bahakel 52,100
62,600
-16.77
50
N/A
 News Press 51,050
57,200
-10.75
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